Let me start by saying that I havn't actually seen most of these movies I am basing my predictions off of a few things: knowledge of an actors previous work, knowledge of how previous Academy Award ceremonies have gone, and reading the reviews of other critics.
I present to you the full list of Oscar nominees for the 2009 season.
BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
My Rant: Hmmm where did "Revolutionary Road" disappear to? Apparently they did not like that one too much. The Academy Awards are a fickle mistress indeed.
My Prediction: "Slumdog Millionaire" mainly because it swept the Golden Globes. Traditionally foreign films haven't fared too well in this category of the Oscars, but who knows this could be the year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Gus Van Sant, Milk
My Rant: Well it seems as if Sam Mendes the director of "Revolutionary Road" has been left out, I am sensing some major snubbage for this film.
My Prediction:I think the award is going to go to Steven Daldry. Generally when it comes down to individuals the Oscar tends to go for people who have done great work in the past and not been recognized. Steven Daldry was nominated for directing "Billy Eliot" and "The Hours." My bet is that his previous near wins for some really brilliant work will score him some votes.
BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
My Rant: Up until now I have not heard of "The Visitor" I just watched the trailer and it looks like a really good movie. Yet this is a sign of a big problem. Historically movies campaign to be nominated and voted for. If they don't have enough publicity to get their name really recognized there then there is a chance that they can fall through the cracks.
My Prediction: Sean Penn. Second choice is Brad Pitt, only because Sean Penn has done a lot to piss off the Academy and has not appeared to be very grateful for past recognition. I don't think the Oscar Crowd would go for a relative outsider like Mickey Rourke. Yes he was the underdog at the golden globes and still managed to pull through, however I just don't feel that the Oscars would award him again.
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
My Rant: "Frozen River" is another movie I haven't heard about till now, Quentin Tarentino praised it and really that's all I need to know to want to see a movie.
My Prediction: I think Kate Winslet is going to take this one. People will vote for her because they felt she deserved to be nominated for "Revolutinary Road" not to mention that she has been nominated for Oscars 5 times before and has never won. I think this is her year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
My Rant: I am happy to see that a movie like "Tropic Thunder" got a nomination, the Oscars are notorious for ignoring comedy.
My Prediction: Heath Ledger, again he deserves it. He poured everything he had into this role, and is completely mesmerizing and terrifying on screen. I will be pissed if anyone else gets it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
My Rant: Did anyone notice that Kate Winslet won the Golden Globe for best supporting actress in the same role for which she is currently nominated for Leading actress?
My Prediction: It's not so much a prediction as it is a wish. I want Amy Adams to get this one.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter
My Rant: It's really hard to judge best screen play when you haven't seen the actual movies. However I have difficulty believing that WALL-E will walk away with the award when most of the dialogue consists of whistles and clicks.
My Prediction: I have narrowed it down to "Happy go lucky" or "In Bruges" they both seem like clever films.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy
My Rant: Again no nod for "Revolutionary Road" which was adapted from a very highly acclaimed novel. Something fishy is going on here.
My Prediction: I havn't seen any of these I'll just guess and throw out some "Doubt"
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E
My Rant: I absolutely loved "Kung Fu Panda" but...
My Prediction: The winner will be WALL-E
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory — Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up
My Rant: It's impossible to see these movies unless your cool enough to be i the academy or go to all sorts of fancy film festivals. Like seriously could someone make these things available for purchase on iTunes because I would love to see them in more then the 30 second clip they show at the Oscars.
My Prediction: "Oktapodi" why? Because it's title was the most fun to say.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
My Rant: Finally a nod for "Revolutionary Road" I was beginning to think they had somehow forgot to put themselves up for consideration in the Oscars.
My Prediction: I'm feeling "Benjamin Button" for this one. It's a story that has to span time, and accomplishing that in a convincing way is always a sign of a great art director.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
My Rant: There is a fair chance that I am rooting for an underdog in this category but I have my reasons. Normally action films get ignored in this category, well unless they were made in China. But I am rooting for "Dark Knight" the simple fact is that they used a better camera then anyone else on this list .... I think. "Dark Knight" was filmed using the super heavy hard to maneuver IMAX camera. Because of sheer technology it's bound to have a clearer picture then the other films however clearer does not always mean better.
My Prediction: "Dark Knight" ok so I'm actually pretty sure it's not going to win, but I can't bring myself to write down another name when the cinematographer sacrificed so much to work with a giant heavy camera in the name of superior quality.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road
My Rant: Period pieces almost always win this category
My Prediction: "The Duchess"
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water
My Rant: Haven't seen or heard of any of these sorry folks.
My Prediction: "Encounters at the End of the World" because it has the most interesting title.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness — From the Balcony of Room 306
My Rant: I havn't seen or heard of these so I can't judge.
My Prediction: "Smile Pinki" again because it has the best name.
BEST EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
My Rant: Film editing is some of the most important tedious work that is done in all of film. I tip my hats to those people who work very long hours in small rooms with fickle equipment. Maybe one day with any luck I will join your ranks.
My Prediction: "Slumdog Millionaire" it's a story with a lot of going back and fourth. In other words a movie with a more obvious editing style, so I think it has a better chance of winning.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Departures (Japan)
Revanche (Austria)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
My Rant: Havn't seen any of these
My Prediction: "Waltz with Bashir" because it won the Golden Globe.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)
My Rant: see previous rant about short fims
My Prediction: "I'll go with "Auf Der Streke" because it has an interesting name,
BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
My Rant: no rant
My Prediction: I am 100% positive that it is going to "Benjamin Button"
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Alexandre Desplat
Defiance, James Newton Howard
Milk, Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire, A.R. Rahman
WALL-E, Thomas Newman
My Rant: John Williams has gone three hole years without being nominated. The guy has 45 Oscar Nominations, I'm always surprised to find out when he is not nominated.
My Prediction: "Slumdog Millionaire" some Bollywood tunes are a nice change of pace from John Williams or striped down minimalistic compositions that have been nominated in previous years. I think the Academy will vote for it.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
''Down to Earth,'' WALL-E
''Jai Ho,'' Slumdog Millionaire
''O Saya,'' Slumdog Millionaire
My Rant: I am actually excited to see and hear the nominated songs performed on stage this year. In the past there have been some songs that I really couldn't stand to sit through. I looked up the nominees in this category and I actually liked what I heard.
My Prediction: It's hard to judge when so much of music comes down to personal taste "Jai Ho" was the one I liked best so hopefully it will be the one that wins.
BEST SOUND EDITING
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted
My Rant: I really want "Wanted" to win it was such a cool action flick, and the sound was done very well. You heard every knife swing, every bullet fly by, and sometimes you heard warped voices appropriate to the situation. Personally I really liked the sound design of this film.
My Prediction: The winner will be WALL-E
BEST SOUND MIXING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted
See above coments
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
My Rant: I'm not even sure "Dark Knight" should be nominated for this category, when director Christopher Nolan specifically did as much as possible to avoid using special effects. That being said I think Hellboy got snubbed. The movie had some really spectacular effects in it.
My Prediction: It's between "Iron Man" and "Benjamin Button"
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